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如何预测未来利率走势?关于前瞻指引的国际证据

2019/08/06 11:12
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前瞻指引,即央行就未来可能的利率走势进行沟通,通常会降低不确定性。但在实践中如何做到这一点很重要,因为短期的前瞻指引可能会带来不确定性。如果前瞻指引削弱了金融市场中私人信息的聚集,从而降低了市场价格的信息含量,就会出现这种情况。

Central banks often make statements about the likely future path of interest rates by providing so-called forward guidance. Forward guidance is especially used if the central bank can no longer cut policy rates because they are already as low as possible (i.e. they have reached their lower bound). In this case, central banks can further “ease” monetary policy by managing expectations about the future course of policy rates.[2] Via forward guidance, central banks provide additional information regarding their likely response to economic developments, which can anchor expectations about future policy rates and reduce uncertainty.

中央银行通常通过提供所谓的前瞻指引来对可能的未来利率路径作出陈述。如果中央银行不能再削减政策利率,因为它们已经尽可能低(即它们已达到下限),因此特别使用前瞻指引。在这种情况下,央行可以通过管理对未来政策利率的预期来进一步“缓解”货币政策。通过前瞻指引,中央银行提供有关其对经济发展的可能反应的额外信息,这可以锚定对未来政策利率的预期并减少不确定性。

The type of forward guidance matters

前瞻指引的类型很重要

Forward guidance can be implemented in different ways. Three types of guidance have been dominant in the recent past:

前瞻指引可以以不同方式实施。最近有三种类型的指引占主导地位:

  • Open-ended forward guidance is a purely qualitative statement about the policy path. An example is the ECB’s statement used between July 2013 and January 2016 that “we expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.”

  • 开放式前瞻指引是关于政策路径的纯粹定性陈述。一个例子是欧洲央行在2013年7月至2016年1月期间使用的声明,“我们预计欧洲央行的关键利率将在较长时间内保持现状或较低水平。”

  • Data-based forward guidance outlines a policy path conditional on economic outcomes. The ECB’s current forward guidance, for example, contains such an element, as the key policy rates are expected to remain at their present levels “for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.”

  • 基于数据的前瞻指引概述了以经济结果为条件的政策路径。例如,欧洲央行目前的前瞻指引包含这样一个因素,因为关键政策利率预计将保持在目前的水平,“只要有必要,以确保通货膨胀在中期持续向低于,但接近于2%的水平收敛。“

  • Calendar-based forward guidance is a policy path with an explicit reference to a calendar date. An example is the current guidance by the ECB, that key policy rates are expected to remain at their present levels “at least through the first half of 2020.”

  • 基于日历的前瞻指引是一种政策路径,其中明确引用了日历日期。一个例子是欧洲央行目前的指引,即关键政策利率预计将“至少在2020年上半年”保持在目前的水平。

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